معولية التوزيع الاسي لنموذج كاسكاد (1+3)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54153/sjpas.2026.v8i1.1264الكلمات المفتاحية:
Unit، Monte Carlo، Percentile، Least Squares، and Exponential distributionالملخص
في هذه البحث، تم إيجاد صيغة المعولية لنموذج متتالي يحتوي على أربع وحدات (الوحدة الأولى الاساسية والوحدات الثلاث الأخرى و و احتياطية زائدة). تم افتراض أن متغيري المتانة والإجهاد يتبعان التوزيع الأسي. تم إيجاد تقدير معلمات التوزيع الأسي باستخدام ثلاث طرق تقدير هي (الإمكان الاعظم، النسبة المئوية، والمربعات الصغرى) ومن ثم تم تقدير موثوقية النموذج بهذه الطرق. تم إجراء محاكاة مونت كارلو باستخدام برنامج MATLAB لمقارنة نتائج طرق التقدير ومعرفة أيهما أفضل لتقدير موثوقية النموذج باستخدام متوسط مربع الخطأ وقد وجد أن مقدر الإمكان الأعظم هو الأفضل لتقدير معولية النموذج
المراجع
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